The Present Situation in Lebanon

By Rev. Dr. Habib Badr
National Evangelical Church of Beirut

1. Introduction

The situation in Lebanon is very tense and unclear. The whole fate of the country is at stake. The worst is yet to come. The country might disintegrate and be re-formed on a new basis. The prospects for a peaceful settlement of the present crisis are not promising. The people of Lebanon are perhaps tired after thirty years of conflict and violence. They may have run out of ideas and cannot clearly see the way forward any longer. Their resources for conflict resolution and peace-building have diminished. I believe they need the help of friends and governments of good will more than ever before in their history.

2. Brief analysis of the present situation

General situation

The war between 12 July and 14 August this past summer devastated Lebanon in so many ways. The first and obvious level of destruction is physical and economic. The Israelis had said at the beginning of the war that it was their intention to set Lebanon back twenty to thirty years. Well, at the end of thirty three days of intense bombardment of the transportation and communication infrastructure (about 80 bridges in total!), and the massive destruction of buildings and homes in parts of Beirut and of villages in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, we can safely say that they certainly succeeded. Lebanon's economy for the most part depends on financial and touristic services. These two sectors have been very badly damaged and it will take several years and much effort before they can bounce back to their previous state.

Economic challenges

The cost of the rebuilding effort is anticipated to reach some 4 billion US dollars, and the economic losses to the country in general are estimated at 10 billion dollars. Furthermore, before the war, Lebanon's national debt was already in the area of 35 billion dollars. So matters can only get worse. Lebanon is facing at present a very serious and devastating economic crisis. Thanks to very generous aid from the Arab and Western worlds, including Germany of course, we may be beginning to pick up the pieces. But it is a long process and a tedious road ahead.


Political challenges

Nonetheless, had Lebanon's problems been only on the level of physical and economic losses, it would have been manageable, albeit with difficulty. The deeper and much more serious challenge that the Lebanese face today is the profound and sharp political and ideological division that exists between the various Lebanese communities; a division that the recent war only served to intensify. Already before the war the Lebanese were going through a heated but healthy national dialogue process in an attempt to solve the major political problems the country was and is facing. These issues had divided the Lebanese for years past and in some cases were causes of war and violence between the various communities and religious confessions forming present-day Lebanon.

One of the most difficult of these issues is the presence of some four hundred thousand Palestinian refugees on Lebanese territories, some of whom are well armed and not subject to the central authority. The Lebanon war between 1975 and 1990 was to a large extent caused by this issue and the inability of the Lebanese to agree on the role of Palestinian armed presence in Lebanon. This problem lingers on although not as sharply.

a) Syria

Another challenge is the future relation between Lebanon and its Arab neighbor, Syria. The Syrians have never recognized the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Lebanon and thus have refused diplomatic relations with it. From 1976 to 2005 the Syrians exercised a kind of political, military and economic hegemony over Lebanon, and thus nurtured allies as well as enemies over time. It was only the assassination of prime minister Rafiq Hariri that forced the Syrian army out of Lebanon in 2005, thus diminishing their influence. However, their insidious and clandestine interference in Lebanese politics persists. The sudden and forced withdrawal of their troops created tremendous tension between the two countries and left the Lebanese divided over the future of relations with Syria.

b) Israel

Of course, the most divisive of the issues that is currently a major cause of communal tension, is the relation with our other neighbor, Israel. Southern Lebanon had been freed from Israeli occupation in the year 2000. Hezbollah, which considered itself a resistance movement, had indeed played a decisive role in forcing a one-sided withdrawal of the Israeli army from the South. This was greatly supported and appreciated by the general population of Lebanon.

The problem arose when Hezbollah insisted that, even though the South had been liberated, its arms and fighters must remain poised to defend Lebanon against any possible future Israeli aggression. They also raised the issue of the Israeli occupation of the Shebaa Farms as another reason for continuing armed resistance. These Farms are Lebanese territories but were under Syrian control when they were occupied by Israel in the war of 1967. Hezbollah's armed resistance has been fully supported and financed by Iran through the cooperation and facilitation of Syria. Thus for the last six years, Hezbollah continued to arm itself and consistently objected to and actually prevented the Lebanese army from deploying in South Lebanon after the Israeli withdrawal. It is only in September of this year that the UN resolution 1701 allowed for a re-entry of the Lebanese army into the South, albeit a timid and weak one.

The arms and armament of Hezbollah remains a very thorny issue that sharply divides the Lebanese. Behind this issue is the basic question of the relation to Israel. For Hezbollah and its mostly Shiite supporters, peace with Israel is inconceivable and Lebanon must remain a country at war with the state of Israel at all future times. The other part of the Lebanese (mostly the Sunni, the Druze, the Christians and a significant part of the Shiite community) adopted the general Arab view which would recognize the presence of Israel as a legitimate state in the Middle East - - provided of course that a just solution is found to the Palestinian question and a viable Palestinian state is created side by side with Israel.

c) Iran

Lebanon is at present on the brink of a major confrontation between the upholders of these two opposing positions among its various communities. A confrontation that is aggravated by regional and international conflicts and the disagreement over the implementation of the United Nations' resolution 1701. The situation is greatly aggravated by the conflict between Iran and the USA over nuclear weapons, but also by the Sunni/Shiite conflict now intensifying in Iraq and which is being fueled by Iranian and Syrian interference.

Recent developments

The matter came to a head on Saturday two weeks ago when all Shiite members of the cabinet of ministers resigned causing a governmental crisis in the country. Ostensibly, the given reason was the inability of the Lebanese to reach a consensus over the formation of an international tribunal to investigate the murder of prime minister Rafiq Hariri and other politicians and journalists over the last two years. This crisis was greatly worsened by the murder of Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel last week.

Syria has been seriously suspected as a major player in the execution of these assassinations. If it is implicated, Syria's allies in Lebanon (mainly the Shiites) would be placed in an extremely difficult and unenviable position. But at the heart of the matter is a deeper division between the Lebanese over two political ideologies concerning the future of Lebanon: Is Lebanon potentially a state that can sign a peace treaty with Israel (the main stream Arab position), or is it to be in a perpetual state of enmity with its southern neighbor (the Iranian position)? This impasse has paralyzed the government and the country. The threat to take the issue to the streets and create public disturbance leading up to possible civil disobedience has been raised. Indeed as I write these lines, the decision has been made by Hezbollah and its supporters to start street demonstrations and protests on Friday Dec. 1, at 3pm. These actions will continue until the government falls, according to the organizers.



3. Recommendations

The present demographic distribution of the Lebanese population cannot any longer sustain the present political structure that divides power equally between Muslims (Sunni, Shiite and Druze) and Christians (of all denominations). This means that the National Pact (of 1943) as well as the Ta'ef Accord (of 1989) must be revised.

The recommendation is to find a new political formula that re-distribute power equally between the three major communities of Lebanon: Christian, Shiite and Sunni (and Druze possibly). These three main confessions must covenant amongst themselves to form a strong and defensible but neutral Lebanese democratic state - very similar to the Swiss model. Naturally many details need to be worked out, and other formulae may be considered. But a reformulation of the present political formula is necessary and inevitable. In my judgment it will dramatically defuse the present communal and confessional tension in the country.

The Lebanese army must be very well equipped and trained to preserve the territorial integrity of an independent and neutral Lebanon - independent from Israeli as well as Syrian interference and influence - with formal diplomatic ties with both states. The Lebanese army must be capacitated by the international community so that it is able to guard the borders of Lebanon with both Israel and Syria. Only in this case can the military branch of Hezbollah integrate into the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah can become a political party and play an active role in internal Lebanese politics. (Hezbollah cannot be disarmed by force - even Israel could not do it!).

For this solution to become feasible in the present crisis, the following measures must be taken:

1. Israel has somehow to be "forced" by the international community
- to fully comply with resolution 1701,
- to stop over-flights into Lebanese air space,
- to withdraw from the Shebaa Farms.

2. The international community may temporarily place the Shebaa territories under United Nations supervision until their political and geographic fate is decided. At the same time a deal must be made for the exchange of all Israeli and Lebanese captives and prisoners. (The Germans have done this before). If this is secured, it will spurn the vast majority of the Shiite community to urge the military branch of Hezbollah to be neutralized and integrated into the Lebanese army and for the politicians of the party to turn their attention to the internal Lebanese scene. This is the only way out, otherwise Iranian/Syrian political, financial and military support for the Shiite community will continue to foster instability and threaten national peace and security.

3. The Lebanese Christians must be given very real and firm assurances and guarantees that this new political formula will not lead to their gradual marginalization and eventual exclusion from Lebanon's political life. This is a very serious and real danger. The Christians of Lebanon must not regress to becoming second class citizens as they are in other Arab countries.

4. A temporary but fair and equitable solution must be found for managing the political, economic and social affairs of the 400.000 Palestinian refugees on Lebanese soil. Of course they must be disarmed. But they should be supplied with all the necessary means that allow them to live a dignified and decent life until their larger problem is solved.